Connecticut continued its nearly eight-year streak of losing more residents to other states in 2019, as the state saw a net loss of more than 22,000 residents, the fifth highest number of outmigrants in the country.
Although 2019’s loss was smaller than in other years, it is only part of the picture, which can be complicated at times with a lot of data coming from the Census Bureau.
According to U.S. Census figures, 200,291 Connecticut residents have decamped for other states since 2010, a time during which Connecticut’s economy has struggled to keep up with the rest of the country.
However, the state’s total population has only changed slightly, decreasing by a mere 8,860, according to the same data table.
The primary reason is Connecticut is bolstered by international immigration, which brought in 136,392 people, and a natural increase of 54,839 with more babies being born than residents passing away.
Connecticut’s population peaked in 2013 at 3,562,959, according to Census figures, so measured from that peak, Connecticut has lost a net 30,973 residents to other states in the last six years, or .8 percent of its peak population.
Connecticut generally gains residents from out of the country and New York but tends to lose more residents to Massachusetts and southern states, particularly Florida.
The largest loss of residents is among young people leaving for college and retirement-aged individuals decamping for lower-cost and often warmer states, but recent years have seen an uptick in the number of working-age resident seeking employment in other states.
While the loss of .8 percent of the population may not seem like much of a loss it is indicative of one fact: the state’s population stagnated for most of the past decade, coupled with some of the lowest job growth and personal income growth in the country.
According to a study produced by the Commission for Economic Growth and Fiscal Stability, Connecticut has been losing higher-earning individuals to other states, who are being replaced by those earning roughly $30,000 less.
According to Internal Revenue Service data, Connecticut’s net loss of residents has resulted in a big loss of taxable income – most notably in 2015 when the state saw a massive outflow of high income earners with a net loss of $2.6 billion in adjusted gross revenue.
Connecticut also faced significant tax increases in 2009, 2011 and 2015 as the state saw large budget deficits.
In 2013, Connecticut’s peak population for the past ten years, the state took in $21.3 billion in revenue. By 2019, the state took in $19.6 billion, a 17.3 percent decrease when adjusted for inflation.
In 2013, Connecticut’s peak population for the past ten years, the state took in $21.3 billion in revenue. By 2019, the state took in $19.6 billion, a 17.3 percent decrease when adjusted for inflation.
Connecticut gross domestic product, likewise, has declined. Connecticut’s economy peaked in 2007, before the 2008 recession, and has struggled to recover since that time.
In 2010, Connecticut’s GDP was $247.4 billion. By 2019, Connecticut’s GDP was $248.8 billion. When adjusted for inflation, that means an 18.8 percent drop in gross domestic product.
However, as widely reported, Connecticut’s loss of residents may be reversing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has seen New Yorkers leaving the state for Connecticut to avoid the New York City virus hotspot and civil unrest that sparked up over the summer of 2020.
An influx of individuals with the ability to purchase homes over asking price could bode well for state coffers in the future, but how it may affect Connecticut’s job market and economic growth as a whole remains to be seen.
The closure of businesses during the pandemic combined with the loss of employment for hundreds of thousands of residents for the better part of a year may continue to haunt the state’s economy in the future.
Connecticut’s larger challenge in the future may be retaining those who moved here in response to the pandemic – a group who is likely highly-mobile — and capitalizing on what could be a year of population growth.
The post Over 200,000 people have moved out of Connecticut since 2010, as state economy declined first appeared on Yankee Institute for Public Policy.